Realities from the Middle East
Future events are nearly impossible to predict, but the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have done the hard work, are we listening to them? Last February, Major Eliot Chadoff of Israel’s northern command presented a white paper in Tacoma, WA discussing the environment in the Middle East. Events subsequently prove Chadoff was on target. We really do need to understand what the IDF knows because our own previous and present Secretary of State, have proven they cannot be trusted.
Chadoff works and lives on the northern border of Israel. From his command post and his home, he can see four hostile villages controlled by four different Islamic terrorist groups. The safety of all that he holds important is dependent on his knowledge and understanding, he has to be accurate and he speaks about it.
The old paradigms that the West used are
misunderstandings of Middle Eastern realities, nor were they ever practical, especially now. To begin with, the borders of the nations in the Middle East are artificial, drawn up by European powers. These borders did not consider the depth of divisions and loyalties that have developed over the millennia. Thus the nations as we know them contain many varied ethnic, religious, and tribal affiliations that have hated each other for centuries. Now add lust for power and dominance assisted by modern weaponry and foreign intervention, it is even more unstable. Maps showing borders do not accurately reflect who is in control. Therefore, the safety and peace of the entire world is at question and that is not an exaggeration.
To begin, Israel with its close alignment to western culture and values has been a stabilizing influence on the region. But now Israel can no longer adequately plan for its defense should the shooting start. To illustrate this, the IDF’s maps identifying hostile territories reflect changes as often as four times a day. In other words, Hezbollah overruns a village controlled by ISIS, later in the morning ISIS takes it back and so on during the day. In the meantime, the Lebanese army keeps a safe distance.
The instability of the region has become so bad that the Chinese are building a railroad from an Israeli Mediterranean port to Eilat, on Israel’s Red Sea, ensuring a safe flow of trade should the Suez Canal become closed. Added to this is that the United States has been creating a vacuum in the region by abandoning the stabilizing leadership of its super-power status it has held since 1945. This has emboldened the radical leaders of the rogue nations, such as Iran.
The Middle East is controlled by so many diverse entities – who are the major players? Outlining foundational issues that generalize the region, Chadoff pointed out that hatred of the United States, Israel, and the West are a unifying factor. Further, despite the size of Saudi Arabia and its resources, it is a financier, not a major player. The Saudis purchase answers for their problems, sometimes it is an Egyptian solution, other times, it’s an Israeli solution. Adding to that is the fact Saudis can barely fly the jets in its large air force. Chadoff then describes the involvement of Turkey, Russia, Iran, and Egypt in turn.
Turkey, has always been an empire of one sort or another and this is a key point in how they view themselves and the future. Turkey is Muslim, not Arab, and there are many Muslim and non-Muslim minorities within its borders with long standing hostilities toward each other. Erdigan, the prime minister, has been showing signs of desiring to re-establish the Ottoman Empire. There are also indications that Turkey may want to leave NATO. Added to this is the fact that there are millions of ethnic Turks living in Germany, France, and Scandinavia.
The recent shooting down of a Russian jet is not an isolated event; there have been many such incidents. Now suddenly Russia’s Putin suddenly shows just after the failed military coup against Erdigan, thus ending their shadowy war.
Russia, not a Middle Eastern power, is always involved directly or just out of sight. It has always been an empire looking for advancement. That is why Putin is working to gain an all year, ice free port for the Russian navy. Syria has provided two such harbors giving Russia easy access to the Atlantic. Putin is described as a mafia godfather – “you owe us, you will pay.” Though Russia is an outsider, it is still heavily involved in bombing Syrian rebels, ISIS strongholds, and any local hospitals, mosques, or whatever. Putin doesn’t care who wins in Syria, he will win no matter who falls.
Now the Russians are training with their forever enemies, the Chinese in the East and South China Seas at a time of Chinese expansionism.
Egypt is a major player. It has a large effective military, but no real desire to leave its borders, they are not empire builders. Yet Egypt has produced the Muslim Brotherhood, the father of almost all the terrorist groups. At the present time the Sinai is also a major base for Hamas. The first article of Hamas’ charter called the “Charter of Allah” is Israel will exist only till Islam destroys it. Only time will tell what Egypt will do about them.
Iran is Persian, not Arab, and has been its own empire. It is also a very different entity than what this country and the West thinks it is. They want to restore the glory of previous empires, but more importantly, they want to initiate the 12th Iman’s Caliphate which will control the world. The Israelis see us as playing checkers with Iran while they are playing chess with us. Iranians want a nuclear bomb and the destruction of Israel. They talk about it and they walk the talk, no secrets. The embargo was no deterrent to their plans and now they have what Obama and Kerry gave them. By the way, Iran has been at war with the US since 1980.
Iran, though a Shite state actively supports Hezbollah, a Sunni sect, though Sunni and Shiites are often killing each other. Hezbollah is considered by Israel to be the most dangerous of the terrorist organizations.
A few loose ends to tie up: the Islamic Fundamentalist/terrorist have no fear of death, they welcome it. Thus if they are to die for their efforts, that’s OK, Allah and the Prophet are waiting for them.
Erdigan will continue to resurrect the Ottoman Empire, he has publicly stated that the worst event for Turkey in the 20th Century was the fall of the Ottoman Empire; just as Putin has said the same for the Soviet Empire.
Israel knows for a fact that terrorists have been entering this country from Mexico.
Don’t rely on the drive-by news, CNN is referred to in Israel as Certainly Not News.